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Your location: Home / Science / Forecasting the ocean

Forecasting the Ocean

Ocean models

The development of ocean forecasting systems is generally a national effort focused on regional requirements. GODAE has given national groups the opportunity to collaborate and so, by exchange of technology and knowledge, has provided a firm base for the development of a global ocean forecasting system.

North Atlantic SST's, credit to FOAM, Met Office

Although reliable observations are a vital component of the model forecast, the quality of the prediction will primarily depend on the ability of the ocean numerical model to faithfully represent the ocean physics and dynamics. To produce reliable forecasts the model needs to be initialised with conditions that accurately represent the actual state of the ocean. The operational availability of satellite observations has paved the way for global high resolution observation coverage and thus has enabled numerical ocean models to apply a forecast method that has been used by atmospheric models for quite some time.

Data assimilation is a procedure that provides a means to systematically compare theoretical short-range forecasts with reality. The aim of data assimilation is to generate a more complete and more accurate description of the state of the modelled system than that obtained by either observations or model simulations alone. However, it is necessary to assess how reliable the model forecast and the observations are. Therefore, error estimates on the measurements and the model predictions are inherent in the assimilation process.

The main GODAE products will be operational global high-resolution nowcast and short-range forecast fields and global, consistent analyses for climate applications. The users targeted by GODAE are the mid-level users who will enhance and emboss GODAE products for specific end users.

The groups organised within GODAE use different models and assimilation methods and work towards a variety of applications. The final aim of GODAE is to develop ocean forecast systems on a global scale that will provide regular, global and regional analyses and forecasts of ocean fields such as temperature, salinity and currents at high temporal and spatial resolution.

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(Last Updated: 12-06-2008)