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Your location: Home / Final GODAE Symposium / Invited papers / 6.2 AS abstract

6.2 Key Future Research Priorities in ocean forecasting

Lead author: Andreas Schiller (CAWCR)

Authors/co-authors: Andreas Schiller¹, Pierre Brasseur², Pierre De Mey³, Roger Proctor⁴, Jacques Verron²

¹CAWCR/CSIRO and WfO National Research Flagship, GPO Box 1538, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia
²LEGI/CNRS, BP 53, GRENOBLE cedex, 38041 France
³LEGOS/POC, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin, Toulouse31500, France
⁴IMOS/UTas, Private Bag 21, Hobart, Tas, 7001 / Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK

Abstract

The next decade will spawn new research activities that will build on the success of GODAE. The grand vision and key research challenge is to develop coupled initialisation systems of numerical weather prediction and eddy-resolving ocean models. These systems will contribute to and benefit from recent progress in earth systems modelling. With increasing computing resources the next decade is also likely to see an even stronger emphasis on "seamless" integrations across time and space scales, covering global, regional and coastal/near-shore ocean prediction systems and addressing a variety of user applications. Improvements will be driven as much by scientific innovation as by user demand. The integrative approach plus the increasingly multi-disciplinary character of ocean forecasting demand state-of-the-art science leadership.

Many research approaches developed in GODAE are just at their beginning and will require ongoing international research collaboration and coordination prior to wide-spread operational implementation and uptake by end users. Examples are:

• Data assimilation:
  • development of data assimilation tools such as coupled atmosphere-ocean initialisation techniques that are fit-for-purpose for a wide range of applications, including short-range, seasonal-to-decadal and climate change prediction (in collaboration with WMO programs);
  • the development of efficient data assimilation techniques for biogeochemical and ecosystem modules of ocean circulation models that are fit for operational purposes;
  • representation of model and data errors using ensemble methods based on various forecasting systems thus delivering more accurate background error estimates; and
  • multi-scale data assimilation and joint estimation of interior and open boundary solutions in nested systems.


• Observing systems:
  • the use of new types of observations (e.g. remotely sensed sea surface salinity);
  • in collaboration with international programs such as IMBER and SOLAS support the research on and implementation of real-time biogeochemical and ecosystem ocean observing systems, e.g. cost-effective sensor-technologies; and
  • an enhanced focus on observing system design and assessment; and its analogue of adaptive sampling will allow assessments of individual components of the observing system and provide scientific guidance for improved design and implementation of the ocean observing system.


• Coastal ocean:
  • further develop the notion of a critical path from routinely-available information (satellite, in situ, basin-scale estimates) to the coastal and littoral applications, and importance of the role of the coastal ocean link on this path;
  • enhancements to existing systems and development of new coastal ocean forecasting systems that downscale the global basin-wide model estimates as part of the local data assimilation problem, resolving the rich scale interactions, tides and high frequencies, and experimenting novel approaches such as coupled modelling and unstructured grid modelling; and
  • contribution to the objective design of observing systems for the coastal ocean, such as new satellite sensors, coastal observatories, etc.; use of such observations in the local forecasting system and upscaling of the information to the basin-scale systems.



This paper presents recent international trends and projected future advances in the underlying science.




Keywords: forecasting systems, biogeochemistry, ecosystem, coastal, observing systems, ocean modelling, data assimilation

(Last Updated: 13-10-2008)