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Your location: Home / Final GODAE Symposium / Invited papers / 5.6 GG abstract

5.6 Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to hurricane intensity forecasting

Lead author: Gustavo Goni (NOAA)

Authors/co-authors: Gustavo Goni^{1, 16}, Mark DeMaria², John Knaff², Charles Sampson³, Isaac Ginis⁴, Francis Bringas ⁵, Alberto Mavume⁶, Chris Lauer⁷, I-I Li⁸, M. M. Ali⁹, Paul Sandery¹⁰, Silvana Buarque¹¹, KiRyong Kang¹² , Avichal Mehra¹³, Eric Chassignet¹⁴ and George Halliwell¹⁵

¹NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA
²NOAA Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, Fort Collins, CO, USA
³Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, USA
⁴University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, RI, USA
⁵University of Miami, CIMAS, Miami, FL, USA
⁶University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
⁷NOAA Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, FL, USA
⁸Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
⁹Oceanography Division, National Remote Sensing Agency, Hyderabad, India
¹⁰Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia
¹¹Mercator Ocean, Ramonville St. Agne, France
¹²National Typhoon Center/KMA, Jeju, South Korea
¹³NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Spring, MD, USA
¹⁴Florida State University, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL, USA
¹⁵University of Miami, RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL, USA

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) occur in seven ocean basins: tropical Atlantic, northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, southwest Indian, north Indian, southeast Indian, and south Pacific. While sea surface temperature plays a role in the genesis of TCs, the upper ocean heat content contained between the sea surface and the depth of the 26°C isotherm has been shown to play a more important role in TC intensity changes. Sudden TC intensification has been linked with high values of upper ocean heat content contained in mesoscale features particularly warm ocean eddies, provided that atmospheric conditions are also favorable. Therefore, resolving the upper ocean mesoscale field is critical to monitor the upper ocean heat content. Sustained hydrographic and in situ observations cannot resolve mesoscale features and their vertical thermal structure with a spatial and temporal resolution sufficient for TC intensification studies. This manuscript reports a summary of some of the current work being carried out to investigate the role that the upper ocean plays in TC intensification. The TC intensity forecast in some of these basins has already incorporated upper ocean thermal information either in research or operational mode. While most of the focus of TC intensification studies has been in the North Atlantic and the North West Pacific basins, there are now efforts being carried out in the rest of the basins. Examples are presented here on how ocean data and products are used by the scientific and operational communities to investigate the link between the ocean and TC intensification. The empirical Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), used in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins, incorporates a number of atmospheric and ocean predictors. The ocean heat content was incorporated as an ocean predictor in the Atlantic version of SHIPS in 2004. Plans are underway to add the ocean heat content to the east Pacific version in 2009. Routine monitoring, analyses and forecasts of various measures of ocean heat content and their respective climatological anomalies is being carried out in the Australian region in order to understand relationships between severe weather and upper ocean heat content. Mercator Ocean is evaluating the ability of its global ocean forecast system to monitor the TC by examining modifications in the high-frequency of the oceanic parameters and their effect on TC intensification. Recent studies in the northwest Pacific Ocean indicate that the climatological background ocean heat content may determine the role of mesoscale features in TC intensification. In the southwestern Indian Ocean, recent analysis performed using satellite altimetry observations show evidence that anticyclonic warm eddies may be linked to the intensification of TCs in the Mozambique Channel. Recent research carried out in the North Indian Ocean indicates that upper ocean heat content rather than temperature is a better parameter to investigate TC intensification in this highly stratified region.

Keywords: tropical cyclone, hurricane, typhoon, intensification, upper ocean, ocean heat content, tropical cyclone heat potential.

(Last Updated: 13-10-2008)